Eric Jackson might not get the same level of coverage as other high-profile hedge fund managers, but, as founder of EMJ Capital, Jackson has built a reputation for discovering asymmetric compounders before other analysts on Wall Street.
Most famously, Jackson made a bullish bet on Carvana stock when it traded for just $3.50. Carvana later surged over 100x and reached $413 per share. Last summer, Jackson was at it again. He went long on Opendoor Technologies when it traded as a penny stock, only to see it run up to about $10.
His latest bull call is Dave (DAVE +7.62%), a fintech that he says the market prices more like a traditional bank even as the business transforms into a high-margin payments toll booth. Could Dave be the next stock to go parabolic?
Today’s Change
(7.62%) $17.76
Current Price
$250.71
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$3.4B
Day’s Range
$236.57 – $256.18
52wk Range
$78.30 – $286.45
Volume
1.1M
Avg Vol
593K
Gross Margin
71.40%
Dave is an AI-powered lender for lower-income households
Dave helps paycheck-to-paycheck workers through its flagship product, ExtraCash, which offers members instant advances of up to $500 that get automatically repaid from the user’s next paycheck. As a differentiator from a traditional bank, Dave does not conduct credit checks or apply interest charges and late fees. Instead, Dave employs a flat fee of $5 or 5% of the transaction, plus a $3 monthly subscription.
ExtraCash is powered by CashAI, Dave’s AI underwriting model that analyzes data points such as cash flow instead of credit scores as well as income, employment history, spending patterns, and bank balances. Complementing CashAI is DaveGPT, the company’s generative AI assistant, which provides real-time conversational support for ExtraCash users.
Image source: Getty Images.
Dave is taking a page out of the credit card playbook
Dave is in the final stages of migrating its ExtraCash receivables to an off-balance-sheet structure with Coastal Community Bank. Under the partnership, Coastal will fund advances and carry the receivables on its own books while Dave continues originating and underwriting.
This shift de-risks Dave’s model, as the company currently ties up roughly $200 million of its own cash to fund the receivables held on its balance sheet. Post-migration, credit risk moves to Coastal’s bank, reducing Dave’s exposure to collection losses or duration risk on the advances.
Dave is essentially reorganizing as a fee-based originator like Visa or Mastercard. In theory, this balance sheet cleanup should unlock free cash flow that Dave can use for new growth opportunities and shareholder return programs.
Jackson’s modeling offers a path to parabolic stock price movement
Jackson published a three-year scenario model on his Substack page. His forecast assumes the Coastal bank migration is complete, new products and services have ramped up, and stock buybacks accelerate.
| Scenario | Key Drivers | 2029 Free Cash Flow per Share | Implied Multiple | Price Target | Implied Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear case | 10% member growth, 2.5% loss rate | $40 | 20x | $800 | 279% |
| Base case | Sustained growth, new products roll out | $106 | 20x | $2,120 | 905% |
| Bull case | 10% addressable market acquired, average revenue per user growth (ARPU) above 15% | Not explicitly stated | Between 13x and 20x | $4,160 to $6,400 | Over 2,000% |
Data source: EventHorizonIQ Substack.
These targets are fueled by aggressive revenue growth and operating leverage that is not yet proven. In my view, each of these cases is going to be tough to achieve under Jackson’s three-year horizon.
While Dave might be a mispriced compounder poised for a valuation rerating — where investors are willing to pay more — I think Jackson’s touch makes it more of a meme or momentum stock now. While the business is interesting and the upside potential could be there, I’d sit on the sidelines and wait until Dave’s growth roadmaps actually start to bear fruit.
