Shares of digital advertising specialist The Trade Desk (TTD 2.15%) tumbled on Friday morning after the company reported its first-quarter results late Thursday. The sell-off added to what has already been a brutal stretch for the growth stock, which is now down more than 40% year to date.
So is the steep pullback finally a chance to get into a name once viewed as a high-quality way to play the shift of advertising dollars to the open internet? Or is the stock’s recent beating justified?
Despite the stock’s meaningful decline this year, I’ll be staying on the sidelines — at least for now.
Image source: Getty Images.
A growth story losing steam
The Trade Desk’s first-quarter report wasn’t necessarily bad. The ad-tech company posted revenue of $689 million during the period, up 12% year over year, living up to the company’s guidance for revenue of “at least” $678 million. Additionally, customer retention remained above 95%, as it has for over a decade. And free cash flow stayed healthy, at $276 million — 40% of revenue.
But when viewed in the context of the type of growth the Trade Desk shareholders are accustomed to, it’s pretty disappointing.
Revenue grew 25% in the first quarter of 2025. By the fourth quarter, the growth rate had slipped to 14%. The first-quarter 2026 figure of 12% marks yet another step lower. And profitability went the wrong way, too. Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share fell to $0.28 from $0.33 a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA margins compressing meaningfully versus the year-ago period.
This is the kind of trend that should give investors pause. After all, even at much lower stock prices, investors are still paying for growth, given the stock’s valuation. Shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.
Today’s Change
(-2.15%) $-0.51
Current Price
$22.98
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$11B
Day’s Range
$20.75 – $22.98
52wk Range
$19.74 – $91.45
Volume
2.1M
Avg Vol
20M
Gross Margin
78.63%
A tough macroeconomic backdrop and weak guidance
But here’s my main concern.
During The Trade Desk’s first-quarter earnings call, CEO Jeff Green indicated that the current macroeconomic environment is weighing on its business.
“The macro environment has certainly become more complex in 2026,” Green said. “Geopolitical tensions have increased. All advertisers and agencies are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape. Global economic pressures, wars, and tariffs have created an environment that is harder for some brands and some brand categories to grow.”
That backdrop helps frame management’s softer outlook for the second quarter.
The Trade Desk guided for second-quarter revenue of at least $750 million — an outlook implying year-over-year growth of just about 8%. This would be yet another notable step down from the 12% growth posted in Q1.
During the earnings call, management cited the macroeconomic environment as one of the factors behind the company’s lower growth rates in 2026. But here’s the issue. There’s no guarantee that the global economy will improve anytime soon, and you can’t rule out things getting worse before they get better. Tariff policies remain unsettled, and geopolitical tensions could take years to ease. Further, new economic issues could arise.
Sure, The Trade Desk’s stock isn’t priced like it was a year ago. Shares are down sharply from their 52-week high of $91.45, and the stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has compressed substantially to just 19. But cheaper isn’t the same as cheap enough — not when revenue growth has dropped from the mid-20s to low double digits and is staring down a backdrop that may take a while to improve (or could even get worse).
I’d rather put my money to work in a business growing at strong rates relative to its valuation — one that doesn’t need a meaningful improvement in the macro environment to deliver. Until The Trade Desk’s growth shows signs of reaccelerating, or the stock comes down even further to compensate for these risks, I’m comfortable watching from the sidelines.
